Wednesday, February 11, 2009
The Euro will continue to weaken
I wrote this June of 2008. It turned out to be true as the Euro keeps getting beaten up as the US dollar has shown some impressive strength. Europe has one major problem, and that is that it didnt due enough, quickly enough to protect their financials. They are throwing cash at the banks but have effectively lengthened out their recovery time, by keeping interest rates up. The US dollar will retreat in a big way, but not like the Euro will. All developed nations will experience massive inflation in the months and maybe years ahead. This will hurt any country that does not produce the things that hurt when you drop them on your foot (commodities). Europe also has a major housing problem, just like the US. Their prices went way up, and they also lowered the amount of documentation needed to obtain loans. Countries such as Canada, Brazil, and Australia could see major gains in the upcoming years, while gold, silver, corn,and iron ore will see their prices go up. This is an evolution that we have not seen and I am guessing that the US will come out ok, but the best play is inflation going forward as soon as the threat of deflation is gone.
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